Hierarchical Methods Time series forecasting
copied from cf-staging / hierarchicalforecastHierarchicalForecast offers a collection of reconciliation methods,
including BottomUp
, TopDown
, MiddleOut
, MinTrace
and ERM
.
Classic reconciliation methods:
BottomUp
: Simple addition to the upper levels.TopDown
: Distributes the top levels forecasts trough the hierarchies.Alternative reconciliation methods:
MiddleOut
: It anchors the base predictions in a middle level. The levels
above the base predictions use the bottom-up approach, while the levels below
use a top-down.MinTrace
: Minimizes the total forecast variance of the space of coherent
forecasts, with the Minimum Trace reconciliation.ERM
: Optimizes the reconciliation matrix minimizing an L1 regularized objective.